ABM: Concepts and Practice · Part A: Statistics

Chapter 4: Time series and forecasting

How a bank reads a figure over time: the long climb, the yearly rhythm, the boom and bust, and the noise, and how it projects the line ahead.

Buyers of the e-book, or of the print copy, which includes it, read the whole chapter. Everyone can read the free sample, pages 1 to 24 of the e-book.

In this chapter

• 4.1The four componentsp. 45
• 4.2Trend: freehand, semi-averages, moving averagesp. 46
• 4.3Trend by least squaresp. 47
• 4.4Seasonal indicesp. 48
• 4.5Forecasting and smoothingp. 49
• Exam traps and quick checksp. 50
• Practice: 16 questions in three roundsp. 51
• Answers, with every wrong option explainedp. 53
• Make it stickp. 55
• Chapter 4 on one pagep. 56

Corrections and updates

None for this chapter so far. Every correction to the book, and any rule that changes after its date, is listed on the errata page.